Retail sentiment turns bearish on SpaceX ahead of record IPO

Adanos Software says retail discussion of SpaceX is turning negative ahead of the company’s planned Friday debut, even as financial news and X remain bullish. The data point to a widening gap between professional coverage and Reddit traders just before what could be the largest IPO ever.

Why it matters: - SpaceX’s planned listing on Friday, June 12, could be the biggest initial public offering ever by both raise and market capitalization, with a reported valuation of up to $1.8 trillion. - Adanos Software’s data suggests retail traders may be leaning against the deal just as the company enters its most visible moment. - The split matters because IPO sentiment can shape first-day trading and who ends up buying the most expensive shares.

What happened: - Berlin-based Adanos Software GmbH analyzed 50,338 public mentions of SpaceX and the $SPCX ticker across X, Reddit and financial news ahead of the debut. - Financial news coverage of $SPCX was 69% bullish and 8% bearish. - X posts were 55% bullish and 10% bearish. - Reddit was 22% bullish and 23% bearish across 33,324 mentions in 53 subreddits. - In the final week before the listing, Reddit shifted further to 19% bullish and 22% bearish. - Alexander Schneider, managing director of Adanos Software GmbH, said the company sees the strongest skepticism on the forums where retail investors discuss their own trades.

The details: - Adanos said the bullish share drops by 50 points when the audience shifts from professional media to retail forums. - The five most active X accounts posting about $SPCX had an average sentiment score of +0.55, compared with a platform-wide average of +0.22. - Adanos said that posting pattern was consistent with promotional or automated activity rather than organic opinion. - Of the 10 most-viewed $SPCX posts in the tracking window, four were written by Elon Musk and one by SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell. - Adanos compared SpaceX’s setup with nine prominent, retail-heavy U.S. IPOs since 2021. - Five of those nine now trade below their first-day closing price, including Figma, Rivian, Klarna and Circle. - Figma is down 83% from a +250% first-day pop. - Rivian is down 85%. - Klarna is down 66%. - Circle tripled to $240 within two weeks, then gave back those gains. - Arm, Reddit and Robinhood had some of the strongest post-IPO performance in the sample, but they also had muted or disappointing debuts. - Adanos said the debuts that opened to the most euphoria were the ones that later lost money for first-day buyers. - Reddit mention volume for past IPOs fell 97% to 99% within months of listing. - SpaceX is entering the cycle from more than 2,000 Reddit mentions per day before a single share has traded. - Adanos said the full analysis, raw retail comments, comparison table and API calls are published in the company’s report. - Adanos said every figure in the analysis comes from public API endpoints and Alpha Vantage price data, and can be reproduced on its free tier. - The release says sentiment was captured on June 11, 2026, and live endpoints may change as new posts arrive.

Between the lines: - The data suggest the loudest excitement is not coming from the most active retail forums. - X appears to be amplifying a small number of highly active accounts rather than broad-based enthusiasm. - The historical comparison points to a recurring pattern: heavy IPO hype can be a warning sign for first-day buyers. - Schneider said the bull case is still strong, citing reported oversubscription and more than $2 billion a month in contracted compute revenue, but he cautioned that sentiment does not predict price. - Reddit has been wrong before, including on Reddit’s own IPO, which later tripled. - The analysis frames SpaceX as a possible “retail trap” because the most euphoric buyers may be the ones most exposed if early trading disappoints.

What’s next: - SpaceX is scheduled to list on Friday, June 12. - The first trading sessions should show whether the bearish retail tone on Reddit shows up in actual demand. - Adanos says its sentiment data will continue to update as new posts enter the tracking window.

The bottom line: - The biggest IPO ever may open with Wall Street upbeat and retail traders increasingly cautious. The gap between those two audiences is the core story here.